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  • 股市有风险 投资需谨慎

     

    Market Overview

    "股市有风险 投资需谨慎", everyone has read this statement everywhere. But, few has taken it to heart.

    The government and the brokerage firms post this statement everywhere, not to help you become a better investor, but to lay off their responsibilities, so that when you lose big time, they can say "Well, we have warned you, 股市有风险 投资需谨慎!", implying that if you lose money in this market, you cannot blame them.

    If you cannot blame them, who should you blame then? I believe that you should blame yourself.

    Indeed, to be a consistent winner in the market, that's exactly the attitude you have to take. You should indeed take full responsibility for your own decisions and actions. Making money in the market is not easy. The stock market is likened by many to a battle field, filled with rumors, false information, and reversed tips to midguide you, so that you can lose your money (so that others can collect your lost money). In the end, out of 100 people, probably 80 would lose, 10 break even, and 10 win. And out of these 10 winners, 8 probably win due to luck, and only 1 or 2 win by his/her skills in the market. Everyone knows this subconsciously, but everyone somehow believes that bad luck will happen to others, but not him/her.

    The investor's deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope. Recently, to many people's rude awakening, the Chinese great bull market turned tail, and goes straight down. Many people couldn't believe what they are seeing, and they become paralyzed, and then they rely on hope: they hope that the government will save them, they hope that the infusion of tons of cash from the Chinese central bank will stop the down trend and bring them out of the trap, they hope that top government officials will do something for them (in fact, the government has taught you a very good lesson this round: when the market's tide turns, even the government can't stop it). Well, in a few short days while millions investors were hoping that someone, other than themselves, to save them, the market went lock-limit down a few more days, causing these investors to lose many more billions. What these millions investors should have done is to observe that the market is going down, and cut the loss and then sit on the sideline - "HOPE" has become a big enemy for many people in this market. Hope prevents them from taking timely action. Unfulfilled hope, collectively, will turn into desperation and finally fear, and the investors will then dump everything, which creates the very bottom - we see this coming near every day.

    This Chinese stock market crash might be something new to many of the new participants, but it is nothing unusal when you look at the history of markets, not only in China but in other countries: the 1907 "rich-men's panic", the 1929 crash, the 1972 to 1974 bear market, the 1987 crash, the 2000 to 2002 tech bust, the 2008 subprime crash in the US, the 1990 Japanese stock market crash, and so many other examples. So, why so many people got caught in this devastating crash this round without selling and with lots of hoping? Jesse Livermore said it best in 1923:

    "The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you - you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope - to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the averageman does."

    See, investing successfully is not easy: you have to go against your natural instincts. So many people lose in the market because it is so damn difficult to go against one's natural feelings.

    But, there is light at the end of the tunnel. If you have lost big time, you should take this opportunity to learn about the market and even more importantly, learn about yourself. Learn about the market, so that you know what an animal you are tackling (I can assure you, the market behaves very very differently from what you "think" or believe that it ought to). Learn about yourself, so that you know how you really behave in the market in different scenarios: what's your risk tolerance level, how do you feel about missing an opportunity, how do you feel about getting out too early, what is your feeling when you lose, how about staying with a winner too long (because you think that it would go even higher) and it turns down, and finally becomes a loser? And so on and so forth.

    Yes, as you have realized, making money is not easy in the market, yes, you are right, the market is tricky. But, making consistent money in the market is possible. Think about it, if so many people have lost so much money in the market, who took it? Well, there are consistently successful investors in the market collecting the lost money from the millions.

    We have been writing about this market and we have invested in this market and we made money. How? First, we developed a proprietary index system which tells when a bull move may have started (we are never 100% sure until the move is over), and once we have that signal, we start to buy individual stocks (and may buy index futures as well. How to select the stock to buy is done by our individual stock system, which we may explain in another article in the future), then we cut the losers and ride the winners, until our capital is all deployed in winning stocks (remember, the losers are cut). Then we sit tight, until either the stocks says "sell" or the index says "sell", then we sell our stocks (and may short the index futures as well). Then we wait (in cash, or very few stocks), until the index says "buy" again. At all times, our risk is tightly controlled. Risk is controlled in several ways:
    • We do not buy until the index says "buy", this reduces the risk of buying stocks in an unfavorable market environment, like now
    • We never put more than 10% of capital in 1 stock, this mitigates the risk that the stock stops trading (like many stocks are experiencing right now) or is being locked-limit down and we can't get out (like 1000 plus stocks are experiencing right now each day on most days)
    • If we lose 10% on a stock, we get out as soon as we can (if we can)
    • If when we enter stocks inititally, we experience muliple losses in a row, we reduce the size of the next few entries, until we stop trading (when this happens, it is because we may have a false positive index "buy" signal, i.e., our index model says "buy", but in reality, the market may soon turns down and our model would soon generate a "sell" signal).

    Figure 1. How we traded this market successfully and safely
    股市有风险 投资需谨慎


    Conclusions

    1. Making money in the market is not easy. Otherwise, everyone would fly to the market, as many did in the past few month, and then the market has nobody left to buy, then it goes the other way, causing most people who join late to the game to lose, big time, as many have found out recently.
    2. 股市有风险 投资需谨慎, it is a true statement. The only problem: it doesn't tell you how to be 谨慎. I believe that "谨慎" means that you really have to be selective in when to buy, when to sell, and to ALWAYS control risk. Risk is a serious business in investing, if you don't take care of it right, it will ruin you in the end.
    3. Although making money in the market consistently is not easy, it is doable. We have been doing it for years. We have developed our proprietary systems, and these systems guide us in the market. We move according to strict rules. We try to remove emotions from our trading, because emotions/feelings in the market are not reliable and they often backfire.
    4. Our company is dedicated to world-class education for successful investing in stocks, commodities, futures, options markets worldwide. Write to us, and we may turn you a consistent winner.
       

    转发

    来源:人民网

    谈谈股市为什么会有一段时间大多数人都认为自己赚了


    还是来谈零和定律,就是说,某一时间,进入股市的现金有n元,则过了一段时间,整个股市的现金仍然是n元,不可能多出来,物质不灭也不生,所以不可能大多数人挣钱。通常而言,股市的规律是,百分之五的人挣钱,百分之十五人的不赔不赚,百分之八十的人,赔钱。这是一个定律,是无法违反的,不可能股民个人都拿着比原来多一百万元的钱喜孜孜地走开了,因为零和定律起作用。

    但是,确实会存在一段时间,大多数股民都认为自己赚了,这是为什么?本帖子要指出这个错觉,或者假象,或者也可以认为不是错觉不是假象,而是一种感觉吧,是怎样产生的。

    这种感觉只有在股市持续上涨的一段时间内产生。比如说一个股市有那么一年左右的时间,价格一直在涨,大家就会产生这种感觉。

    那么为什么价格一直会在涨呢?原因就在于想买股票的人越来越多,钱不断地流入股市。但是为什么大家感觉都在赚钱呢?

    所有的在股市中的人,要么持现金,要么持股票,如果一个股民持的股票,比他买入的时候价格要高许多,他就会认为自己赚了,而且,如果他这个时候抛掉股票,那他是真的赚了。所以他的感觉是真实的,因此我上面讲的错觉也许不对?

    比如说吧,一个股民以五元一股的价格购进了一万股,后来股价涨到了十元一股,那么,他就认为他的一万股共值十万元,而和他当初花了五万元买进这些股票相比,就赚了五万元。如果他真的就把股票抛了,他就真的赚了五万元。谈何错觉?

    问题就在于,如果他抛掉了以后,这股票继续涨到二十元一股呢?他要不要再买进?你再买进当初何必抛呢?如果你这时候买进,那当初赚的钱又赔回去了不是?那么他想开了,铁了心地不再买了,这种决策是正确的,但是后来股票又涨到一百元一股呢?而且你以后还要不要再炒股票?还是这辈子就搞这么一下子了?

    因此,炒股票,最大的困难就在于这个决策:什么时候抛?

    如果大多数人坚持不抛,则大多数人感觉都赚了,这个感觉似乎都不是错觉,因为其中极少数人真的抛了,那真的就是赚到了钱。这就让大多数人以当前股票价格来评价自己手中的以股票形式的财产。当然大多数人都得出结论,自己是赚了的。

    但是说这种感觉是错觉也就在于,如果大多数人真的把自己手中的股票抛了,那是不可能按现在的价格得到钱的,那股票会转瞬间就跌下来的。因为零和定律会起作用。这一点其实也是庞氏骗局的原理。

    一般而言,任何一个股民,都具有一定的自虐倾向,就是自我抽嘴巴子,当然不会在大庭广众下抽,而是躲在一个小房间里对着自己的嘴巴狠抽。下面讲原理,为什么会这样。

    炒股票无非就是买进股票,然后卖出股票。最理想的情况,就是在股票最便宜的时候吃进,在最贵的时候抛出。就是说,一个股票的曲线,是一会儿上升一儿下降的。最理想的情况,也就是在曲线的底端的那个坑部吃进,在顶端抛出。但是从概率论上讲,因为谁也不是算命先生,所以能够恰好做到这一点的概率,其实是零。

    这么一来,一个股民无论是买进股票,还是卖出股票,都一定处于股票价格的斜线部分,不是正在上升,就是正在下降。这就是他要抽自己嘴巴的理由。

    如果他在股票价格上升的时候买进,他买完后会找一个地方抽自己嘴巴,瞧瞧我这个人,干吗不在五天前买?如果他在价格下降的时候吃进,他会在五天以后抽自己嘴巴子,我干吗不晚买几天?


    如果他在股票价格上升的时候卖出,他会在五天后抽自己嘴巴,我干吗不晚几天抛?如果他在股票价格下降的时候卖出,他也要抽自己的嘴巴,我干嘛不提早五天就把股票抛了?

    所以你们要观察股市上的股民,他们的嘴巴都有点肿,是被自己抽的。




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