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  • 怎样才能从市场挣些钱

    Market Overview

    Have you ever watched how smoke rises from a burning cigarette? If you haven't, I suggest you do so: the very secret of how the stock market rises is hidden there in the way how smoke rises from a burning cigarette.

    Take a close look at the below picture, carefully. What do you see?



    From a burning cigarette, initially a column of smoke rises decisively, in a clean fashion, in a very unambiguous way, for a while, until, for some reason, it is messed up. It becomes volatile, and its direction becomes unclear.

    Now take a close look at the Shanghai Composite. From middle March 2015 to late April/early May, the market seems to go up every day. The market's uptrend is decisive, its intention clear, and its direction unambiguous. Later, for some reason, the index's uptrend gets messed up. It becomes volatile, it goes back and forth, it walks forward three small steps and then backs off one big step, and its direction becomes unclear: it is going nowhere.




    There are sophisticated laws of physics which explain why smoke behaves the way it behaves. There are sophisticated laws of psychology which explain why market behaves the way it behaves. It is beyond the scope of this article to discuss these laws. And, as a general rule in trading, forget about figuring out all the "why"s and reasons. Just watch the above figures and observe their striking similarities and you will be able to profit from the market's moves.

    How? Well, you want to take your positions when the smoke's move off the cigarette is the cleanest. In other words, you want to take your positions right at the inception, the beginning of the move, when the momentum is the greatest and the ambiguity is the least, so that your success rate is the highest and your reward to risk ratio is the biggest. Later, when the smoke/market gets volatile, you do not want to initiate any new positions, although you still want to hold onto your big winners (and get rid of your losers) in the hope for a much bigger gain.

    Can this be done? Of course, it can be done, we have done it ourselves many times, and we have guided our selected clients through market cycles. Take a close look at the below figure, see where we say that the market smoke is on and you should "buy, buy, buy" and "do not ask why". See also how later we warned repeatedly that the smoke is going volatile and you "should not initiate any new long positions" and should "ride your big winners and cut your losers".





    Many of our readers who follow our recommendations have profited handsomely, while others who think they are smart and jump at these rules have also profited (it is a bull market, you know), but probably not as handsomely, and it may have incurred a lot more anxiety on their side. Still others really break the rules and even go reverse, a few of them may have lost in this once-in-a-life-time bull market. Shame on them!

    So, trading market is really a matter of choice. Do you choose to follow the golden rules in trading and win in the long run or do you choose to go against these rules, having fun in the short term and lose big time in the end, so that you can blame the market, blame others, and blame your "bad luck"?! In the long run, "luck" pays zero role in trading the market. Making money consistently and safely in the market is possible, but you will need the knowledge and the discipline. We teach you the knowledge, but only you can provide the discipline that is necessary to survive and thrive in the battle field that is called the stock market, where 80% of the people eventually lose, 10% of the people break even, 8% of the people win but win mostly due to their being lucky (for 1 of these lucky guys/gals, there are a corresponding 10 "unlucky" guys/gals. In other words, if they were to repeat what they do, very likely they would lose. For example, the people who are lucky and bought big winners like Apple Computer, Microsoft, or Cisco Systems, and hold onto these for a long time), and maybe 1 or 2% of the people who win and who win by skills (in other words, if they were to repeat what they do, very likely they would still win the market). Follow us, and we will teach you how to be the 1% true winners! It is not easy, but it can certainly be done.


    转发

    来源:股票大作手操盘术 ( 杰西·利弗莫尔著)

    为了投资或投机成功,我们必须就某个股票下一步的重要动向形成自己的判断。投机其实就是预期即将到来的市场运动。为了形成正确的预期,我们必须构筑一个坚实的基础。举例来说,在公布某一则新闻后,你就必须站在市场的角度,独立地在自己的头脑中分析它可能对行情造成的影响。你要尽力预期这则消息在一般投资大众心目中的心理效应--特别是其中那些与该消息有直接利害关系的人。如果你从市场角度判断,它将产生明确的看涨或看跌效果,那么千万不要草率地认定自己的看法,而要等到市场变化本身已经验证了你的意见之后,才能在自己的判断上签字画押,因为它的市场效应未必如你倾向于认为的那样明确,一个是“是怎样”,另一个是“应怎样”。为了便于说明,我们来看看下面的实例。市场已经沿着一个明确趋势方向持续了一段时间,一则看涨的或者看跌的新闻也许对市场产生不了一丝一毫的作用。当时,市场本身或许已经处于超买或超卖状态,在这样的市场条件下,市场肯定对这则消息视而不见。此时此刻,对投资者或投机者来说,市场在相似条件下的历史演变过程的记录就具有了不可估量的参考价值。此时此刻,你必须完全抛弃自己对市场的个人意见,将注意力百分之百地转向市场变化本身。意见千错万错,市场永远不错。对投资者或投机者来说,除非市场按照你的个人意见变化,否则个人意见一文不值。今天,没有任何人或者任何组织能够人为制造行情、人为阻止行情。某人也许能够对某个股票形成某种意见,相信这只股票将要出现一轮显著上涨或下跌行情,而且他的意见也是正确的,因为市场后来果然这样变化了,即便如此,这位仁兄也依然有可能赔钱,因为他可能把自己的判断过早地付诸行动。他相信自己的意见是正确的,于是立即采取行动,然而他刚刚进场下单,市场就走向了相反的方向。行情越来越陷入胶着状态,他也越来越疲惫,于是平仓离开市场。或许过了几个天后,行情走势又显得很对路了,于是他再次杀入,但是一等他入市,市场就再度转向和他相左的方向。祸不单行,这一次他又开始怀疑自己的看法,又把头寸割掉了。终于,行情启动了。但是,由于他当初急于求成而接连犯了两次错误,这一回反而失去了勇气。也有可能他已经在其他地方另下了赌注,已经难以再增加头寸了。总之,欲速则不达,等到这个股票行情真正启动的时候,他已经失去了机会。
      
    我这里想强调的是,如果你对某个或某些股票形成了明确的看法,千万不要迫不及待地一头扎进去。要从市场出发,耐心观察它的或它们的行情演变,伺机而动。一定要找到基本的判断依据。打个比方说,某个股票当前的成交价位于25.00美元,它已经在22.00美元到28.00美元的区间里维持了相当长时间了。假定你相信这个股票最终将攀升到50.00美元,也就说现在它的价格是25.00美元,而你的意见是它应当上涨到50.00美元。且慢!耐心!一定要等这个股票活跃起来,等它创新高,比如说上涨到30.00美元。只有到了这个时候,你才能“就市论市”地知道,你的想法已经被证实。这个股票必定已经进入了非常强势的状态,否则根本不可能达到30.00美元的高度。只有当这个股票已经出现了这些变化后,我们才能判断,这个股票很可能正处在大幅上涨过程中--行动已经开始。这才是你为自己的意见签字画押的时候。你是没有在25.00美元的时候就买进,但决不要让这件事给自己带来任何烦恼。如果你真的在那儿买进了,那么结局很可能是这样的,你等啊等啊,被折磨得疲惫不堪,早在行情发动之前就已经抛掉了原来的头寸,而正因为你是在较低的价格卖出的,你也许会悔恨交加,因此后来本当再次买进的时候,却没有买进。
      
    我的经验已经足以为我证明,真正从投机买卖得来的利润,都来自那些从头开始就一直盈利的头寸。接下来,我将列举一些自己的实际操作案例,从这些案例中你会注意到,我选择一个关键的心理时刻来投入第一笔交易--这个时刻是,当前市场运动的力度如此强大,它将率直地继续向前冲去。这只股票之所以继续向前冲,不是因为我的操作,而是因为它背后这股力量如此强大,它不得不向前冲,也的确正在向前冲。曾经有很多时候,我也像其他许多投机者一样,没有足够的耐心去等待这种百发百中的时机。我也想无时无刻都持有市场头寸。你也许会问:“你有那么丰富的经验,怎么还让自己干这种蠢事呢?”答案很简单,我是人,也有人性的弱点。就像所有的投机客一样,我有时候也让急躁情绪冲昏了头脑,蒙蔽了良好的判断力。投机交易酷似扑克牌游戏,就像21点、桥牌或是其他类似的玩法。我们每个人都受到一个共同的人性弱点的诱惑,每一次轮流下注时,都想参与一份,每一手牌都想赢。我们或多或少都具备这个共同的弱点,而正是这一弱点成为投资者和投机者的头号敌人,如果不对之采取适当的防范措施,它最终将导致他们的溃败。满怀希望是人类的显著特点之一,担惊受怕同样是另一个显著特点,然而,一旦你将希望和恐惧这两种情绪搅进投机事业,就会面临一个极可怕的危险,因为你往往会被两种情绪搅糊涂了,从而颠倒了它们的位置--本该害怕的时候却满怀希望,本有希望的时候却惊恐不宁。



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